TerraVue / Markets / San Antonio, TX
Over the past 20 years, San Antonio home prices have risen 4.53% a year; over the past three, 1.67%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.58%. That is 0.44pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.58% a year, a home in San Antonio would gain roughly 42% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.53%) with the last three years (1.67%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,354, the yearly rent bill in San Antonio is about $16,248. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the San Antonio market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 78245's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across San Antonio's 42 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 2.21% to 7.38% a year — a spread of 5.2 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78259 | 7.38% | 11.54% | $1,565 | 50% |
| 78220 | 6.96% | 4.52% | $1,379 | 9% |
| 78248 | 6.63% | 10.17% | $1,132 | 63% |
| 78214 | 6.55% | 3.35% | $983 | 8% |
| 78258 | 6.51% | 10.76% | $1,506 | 60% |
| 78219 | 6.09% | 7.02% | $1,424 | 12% |
| 78211 | 5.47% | 2.48% | $1,225 | 7% |
| 78261 | 5.41% | 7.26% | $1,554 | 54% |
| 78224 | 5.37% | 0.49% | $1,686 | 12% |
| 78253 | 5.35% | 6.21% | $1,533 | 42% |
| 78232 | 4.00% | 2.99% | $1,254 | 49% |
| 78201 | 3.99% | 2.64% | $1,094 | 17% |
| 78209 | 3.92% | 3.13% | $1,493 | 61% |
| 78204 | 3.90% | -2.09% | $1,334 | 22% |
| 78237 | 3.89% | -0.32% | $1,297 | 6% |
| 78227 | 3.83% | 1.73% | $1,279 | 10% |
| 78242 | 3.74% | 1.28% | $1,290 | 9% |
| 78249 | 3.73% | 1.97% | $1,346 | 51% |
| 78218 | 3.67% | 1.99% | $1,448 | 17% |
| 78213 | 3.67% | 2.38% | $1,043 | 24% |
| 78256 | 3.51% | 5.33% | $1,563 | 63% |
| 78216 | 3.38% | 1.46% | $1,238 | 34% |
| 78229 | 3.36% | 2.40% | $1,115 | 32% |
| 78217 | 3.33% | 1.25% | $1,152 | 28% |
| 78210 | 3.27% | -0.62% | $1,378 | 15% |
| 78244 | 3.25% | 1.13% | $1,540 | 23% |
| 78238 | 3.07% | 0.79% | $1,221 | 19% |
| 78223 | 3.01% | 0.84% | $1,362 | 10% |
| 78247 | 2.92% | 0.33% | $1,452 | 37% |
| 78023 | 2.88% | 1.63% | $1,922 | 56% |
| 78250 | 2.81% | 0.36% | $1,530 | 33% |
| 78245 | 2.80% | -0.01% | $1,407 | 25% |
| 78222 | 2.78% | 0.10% | $1,709 | 17% |
| 78240 | 2.76% | 0.36% | $1,156 | 39% |
| 78251 | 2.71% | 0.29% | $1,181 | 31% |
| 78230 | 2.61% | 0.24% | $1,072 | 49% |
| 78212 | 2.54% | -0.03% | $1,502 | 38% |
| 78228 | 2.38% | -0.71% | $1,387 | 13% |
| 78207 | 2.36% | -3.59% | $1,251 | 6% |
| 78233 | 2.30% | -0.88% | $1,307 | 23% |
| 78221 | 2.24% | -0.73% | $1,136 | 10% |
| 78254 | 2.21% | -0.99% | $1,868 | 43% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years San Antonio, TX home prices have risen about 4.53% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.58% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,354. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.53% a year; over the past three, 1.67%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.58%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 42 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 2.21% to 7.38% on that same forward basis.
78259 at 7.38% a year, versus 78254 at 2.21% — a spread of about 5.2 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,354 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).