TerraVue / Markets / El Paso, TX
Over the past 20 years, El Paso home prices have risen 4.15% a year; over the past three, 6.96%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 5.34%. That is 1.32pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 5.34% a year, a home in El Paso would gain roughly 68% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.15%) with the last three years (6.96%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,262, the yearly rent bill in El Paso is about $15,144. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the El Paso market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 79936's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across El Paso's 16 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.87% to 6.82% a year — a spread of 3.0 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79905 | 6.82% | 6.57% | $656 | 8% |
| 79903 | 6.49% | 9.09% | $1,226 | 16% |
| 79902 | 6.30% | 8.79% | $1,083 | 35% |
| 79924 | 5.91% | 8.31% | $1,420 | 18% |
| 79935 | 5.80% | 8.25% | $1,130 | 28% |
| 79904 | 5.79% | 8.12% | $1,139 | 14% |
| 79930 | 5.58% | 6.27% | $1,404 | 18% |
| 79915 | 5.47% | 6.90% | $1,013 | 13% |
| 79922 | 5.41% | 6.83% | $832 | 52% |
| 79907 | 5.30% | 6.75% | $1,153 | 12% |
| 79932 | 5.07% | 6.89% | $2,014 | 41% |
| 79936 | 5.04% | 6.64% | $1,490 | 28% |
| 79925 | 4.86% | 5.88% | $1,439 | 29% |
| 79912 | 4.80% | 6.44% | $1,298 | 49% |
| 79934 | 4.42% | 5.68% | $1,793 | 36% |
| 79911 | 3.87% | 4.54% | $2,603 | 61% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years El Paso, TX home prices have risen about 4.15% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 5.34% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,262. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.15% a year; over the past three, 6.96%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 5.34%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 16 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.87% to 6.82% on that same forward basis.
79905 at 6.82% a year, versus 79911 at 3.87% — a spread of about 3.0 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,262 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Census ACS median gross rent, 2-bedroom.