TerraVue / Markets / Austin, TX
Over the past 20 years, Austin home prices have risen 6.14% a year; over the past three, -0.68%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.41%. That is 0.61pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.41% a year, a home in Austin would gain roughly 40% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (6.14%) with the last three years (-0.68%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,551, the yearly rent bill in Austin is about $18,612. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Austin market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 78745's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Austin's 37 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.03% to 15.18% a year — a spread of 14.1 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78726 | 15.18% | 28.21% | $1,363 | 67% |
| 78747 | 10.89% | 18.84% | $1,532 | 38% |
| 78717 | 10.59% | 17.90% | $1,548 | 67% |
| 78735 | 10.55% | 16.25% | $1,656 | 71% |
| 78739 | 10.52% | 17.30% | $3,399 | 81% |
| 78705 | 10.24% | 14.87% | $1,707 | 72% |
| 78617 | 9.02% | 11.91% | $1,721 | 14% |
| 78730 | 5.79% | 6.74% | $1,551 | 74% |
| 78702 | 4.32% | -1.59% | $1,996 | 57% |
| 78754 | 3.70% | -0.14% | $1,419 | 39% |
| 78746 | 3.55% | -0.06% | $1,779 | 83% |
| 78721 | 3.29% | -3.99% | $1,794 | 50% |
| 78751 | 3.09% | -0.59% | $1,599 | 76% |
| 78757 | 3.09% | -1.44% | $1,831 | 65% |
| 78652 | 3.02% | -1.26% | $2,097 | 40% |
| 78745 | 2.99% | -2.73% | $1,461 | 50% |
| 78703 | 2.94% | -0.53% | $2,599 | 85% |
| 78736 | 2.56% | -2.59% | $1,387 | 56% |
| 78752 | 2.49% | -3.41% | $1,633 | 41% |
| 78750 | 2.40% | -2.60% | $1,479 | 63% |
| 78723 | 2.35% | -4.06% | $1,816 | 51% |
| 78756 | 2.34% | -2.30% | $1,660 | 66% |
| 78727 | 2.29% | -3.35% | $1,441 | 63% |
| 78744 | 2.18% | -4.46% | $1,497 | 30% |
| 78731 | 2.17% | -2.32% | $1,512 | 78% |
| 78749 | 2.05% | -4.05% | $1,489 | 68% |
| 78722 | 1.91% | -3.81% | $1,608 | 72% |
| 78753 | 1.83% | -4.32% | $1,277 | 33% |
| 78759 | 1.81% | -3.81% | $1,363 | 69% |
| 78724 | 1.76% | -5.06% | $1,607 | 22% |
| 78728 | 1.69% | -3.84% | $1,303 | 45% |
| 78733 | 1.62% | -3.60% | $4,220 | 81% |
| 78748 | 1.62% | -4.62% | $1,381 | 52% |
| 78729 | 1.40% | -4.77% | $1,352 | 62% |
| 78704 | 1.35% | -6.24% | $1,862 | 69% |
| 78758 | 1.30% | -5.76% | $1,476 | 46% |
| 78741 | 1.03% | -6.74% | $1,392 | 46% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Austin, TX home prices have risen about 6.14% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.41% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,551. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 6.14% a year; over the past three, -0.68%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.41%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 37 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.03% to 15.18% on that same forward basis.
78726 at 15.18% a year, versus 78741 at 1.03% — a spread of about 14.1 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,551 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).