TerraVue / Markets / Houston, TX
Over the past 20 years, Houston home prices have risen 4.32% a year; over the past three, 5.03%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.71%. That is 0.69pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.71% a year, a home in Houston would gain roughly 58% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.32%) with the last three years (5.03%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,540, the yearly rent bill in Houston is about $18,480. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Houston market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 77449's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Houston's 93 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 0.61% to 11.31% a year — a spread of 10.7 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77449 | 11.31% | 19.99% | $1,784 | 30% |
| 77033 | 9.77% | 6.59% | $1,707 | 9% |
| 77016 | 9.00% | 6.97% | $1,644 | 11% |
| 77047 | 8.93% | 7.79% | $1,958 | 33% |
| 77036 | 8.60% | 13.85% | $1,047 | 15% |
| 77095 | 8.54% | 15.08% | $1,540 | 40% |
| 77084 | 8.29% | 14.13% | $1,547 | 30% |
| 77338 | 8.12% | 12.99% | $1,544 | 19% |
| 77071 | 7.69% | 11.47% | $1,623 | 33% |
| 77086 | 7.48% | 9.92% | $1,241 | 12% |
| 77068 | 7.32% | 12.16% | $1,358 | 36% |
| 77043 | 7.15% | 8.23% | $1,602 | 42% |
| 77041 | 6.89% | 9.91% | $1,608 | 39% |
| 77082 | 6.60% | 10.40% | $1,314 | 34% |
| 77044 | 6.40% | 8.62% | $1,854 | 32% |
| 77099 | 5.95% | 9.23% | $1,223 | 18% |
| 77029 | 5.93% | 2.19% | $1,431 | 8% |
| 77433 | 5.92% | 7.15% | $1,870 | 51% |
| 77018 | 5.83% | 4.85% | $2,180 | 57% |
| 77085 | 5.81% | 5.58% | $1,555 | 15% |
| 77037 | 5.75% | 7.54% | $859 | 6% |
| 77038 | 5.62% | 6.33% | $1,749 | 11% |
| 77025 | 5.60% | 7.42% | $1,385 | 72% |
| 77058 | 5.59% | 8.00% | $1,430 | 45% |
| 77042 | 5.52% | 7.07% | $1,387 | 46% |
| 77013 | 5.48% | 7.38% | $825 | 10% |
| 77072 | 5.40% | 5.40% | $1,523 | 16% |
| 77022 | 5.33% | 4.52% | $1,391 | 13% |
| 77055 | 5.30% | 4.55% | $1,492 | 39% |
| 77021 | 5.19% | 4.78% | $1,797 | 33% |
| 77080 | 5.15% | 4.67% | $1,333 | 27% |
| 77067 | 5.08% | 6.98% | $1,513 | 11% |
| 77093 | 5.06% | 4.34% | $1,267 | 5% |
| 77030 | 4.99% | 5.05% | $1,678 | 83% |
| 77345 | 4.98% | 7.30% | $2,353 | 63% |
| 77447 | 4.92% | 5.29% | $1,975 | 26% |
| 77003 | 4.84% | 4.31% | $1,847 | 48% |
| 77429 | 4.77% | 5.12% | $1,755 | 49% |
| 77060 | 4.70% | 3.95% | $1,059 | 6% |
| 77008 | 4.56% | 3.78% | $1,889 | 72% |
| 77079 | 4.56% | 4.37% | $1,532 | 68% |
| 77336 | 4.54% | 4.16% | $1,846 | 24% |
| 77066 | 4.52% | 4.52% | $1,288 | 22% |
| 77076 | 4.51% | 4.46% | $1,109 | 5% |
| 77053 | 4.39% | 4.82% | $1,833 | 11% |
| 77096 | 4.28% | 4.95% | $1,341 | 54% |
| 77009 | 4.28% | 2.17% | $1,721 | 38% |
| 77091 | 4.24% | 2.93% | $1,855 | 17% |
| 77075 | 4.23% | 4.12% | $1,320 | 15% |
| 77062 | 4.20% | 5.39% | $1,672 | 52% |
| 77339 | 4.14% | 4.14% | $1,631 | 39% |
| 77017 | 4.13% | 3.27% | $1,402 | 11% |
| 77092 | 4.04% | 2.51% | $1,650 | 25% |
| 77065 | 3.99% | 3.10% | $1,347 | 28% |
| 77064 | 3.74% | 4.77% | $1,407 | 28% |
| 77031 | 3.57% | 4.25% | $1,154 | 19% |
| 77089 | 3.51% | 2.20% | $1,500 | 27% |
| 77059 | 3.50% | 3.50% | $2,600 | 66% |
| 77004 | 3.43% | 2.42% | $1,953 | 59% |
| 77045 | 3.38% | 2.68% | $1,566 | 17% |
| 77088 | 3.37% | 1.33% | $1,736 | 13% |
| 77061 | 3.31% | 2.03% | $1,112 | 15% |
| 77040 | 3.29% | 2.06% | $1,273 | 27% |
| 77396 | 3.18% | 1.44% | $1,531 | 25% |
| 77087 | 3.18% | 0.92% | $1,356 | 11% |
| 77019 | 3.14% | 2.67% | $1,849 | 75% |
| 77023 | 3.14% | -0.03% | $1,335 | 23% |
| 77035 | 3.13% | 2.01% | $1,180 | 31% |
| 77386 | 3.10% | 1.48% | $1,992 | 49% |
| 77056 | 3.06% | 2.71% | $1,687 | 77% |
| 77077 | 3.04% | 1.85% | $1,338 | 58% |
| 77063 | 3.03% | 1.73% | $1,240 | 48% |
| 77073 | 3.03% | 3.03% | $1,843 | 13% |
| 77007 | 2.96% | 2.50% | $1,860 | 80% |
| 77090 | 2.96% | 2.96% | $1,009 | 25% |
| 77024 | 2.96% | 1.11% | $1,796 | 75% |
| 77069 | 2.90% | 4.06% | $1,217 | 48% |
| 77015 | 2.87% | 0.67% | $1,047 | 11% |
| 77006 | 2.80% | 1.46% | $1,645 | 79% |
| 77450 | 2.64% | -0.16% | $1,661 | 53% |
| 77098 | 2.61% | 1.46% | $1,717 | 83% |
| 77074 | 2.61% | 0.85% | $1,502 | 21% |
| 77027 | 2.60% | 1.39% | $1,766 | 76% |
| 77034 | 2.58% | 0.22% | $974 | 13% |
| 77081 | 2.47% | 0.23% | $1,114 | 19% |
| 77379 | 2.29% | 0.45% | $1,409 | 51% |
| 77048 | 2.17% | -0.60% | $1,731 | 19% |
| 77407 | 2.17% | 2.17% | $1,632 | 53% |
| 77094 | 2.13% | 0.34% | $1,603 | 69% |
| 77388 | 2.12% | -0.91% | $1,687 | 37% |
| 77014 | 2.07% | 2.03% | $1,121 | 19% |
| 77070 | 1.42% | -1.45% | $1,456 | 39% |
| 77057 | 0.61% | -1.39% | $1,429 | 53% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Houston, TX home prices have risen about 4.32% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.71% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,540. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.32% a year; over the past three, 5.03%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.71%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 93 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 0.61% to 11.31% on that same forward basis.
77449 at 11.31% a year, versus 77057 at 0.61% — a spread of about 10.7 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,540 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).