TerraVue / Markets / Dallas, TX
Over the past 20 years, Dallas home prices have risen 5.30% a year; over the past three, 3.85%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.72%. That is 0.69pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.72% a year, a home in Dallas would gain roughly 59% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (5.30%) with the last three years (3.85%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,553, the yearly rent bill in Dallas is about $18,636. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Dallas market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 75217's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Dallas's 33 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.35% to 8.52% a year — a spread of 5.2 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75225 | 8.52% | 12.64% | $3,000 | 84% |
| 75253 | 7.21% | 8.38% | $1,607 | 9% |
| 75216 | 6.11% | 5.65% | $1,766 | 8% |
| 75229 | 5.54% | 5.80% | $2,599 | 50% |
| 75220 | 5.34% | 4.61% | $1,412 | 21% |
| 75214 | 5.33% | 4.90% | $1,596 | 71% |
| 75238 | 5.31% | 4.87% | $1,330 | 51% |
| 75241 | 5.25% | 4.85% | $1,683 | 12% |
| 75236 | 5.21% | 5.08% | $1,632 | 19% |
| 75218 | 5.19% | 4.37% | $1,596 | 62% |
| 75217 | 5.17% | 4.33% | $1,899 | 5% |
| 75240 | 5.13% | 4.91% | $1,526 | 32% |
| 75209 | 5.12% | 4.48% | $1,684 | 71% |
| 75231 | 5.11% | 4.83% | $1,363 | 35% |
| 75232 | 5.08% | 3.76% | $1,123 | 21% |
| 75248 | 4.90% | 4.30% | $1,452 | 65% |
| 75206 | 4.60% | 3.77% | $1,940 | 74% |
| 75243 | 4.47% | 3.85% | $1,082 | 33% |
| 75223 | 4.45% | 3.31% | $1,595 | 24% |
| 75235 | 4.43% | 3.36% | $1,521 | 42% |
| 75208 | 4.27% | 2.64% | $1,553 | 39% |
| 75228 | 4.14% | 1.99% | $1,244 | 19% |
| 75254 | 4.13% | 3.92% | $1,371 | 50% |
| 75219 | 4.13% | 3.86% | $2,058 | 71% |
| 75224 | 4.10% | 2.09% | $1,458 | 15% |
| 75227 | 4.06% | 2.55% | $1,501 | 13% |
| 75252 | 3.98% | 3.20% | $1,273 | 64% |
| 75230 | 3.83% | 2.89% | $1,800 | 67% |
| 75211 | 3.74% | 1.56% | $1,454 | 13% |
| 75287 | 3.73% | 2.72% | $1,320 | 47% |
| 75204 | 3.64% | 1.22% | $1,960 | 70% |
| 75249 | 3.36% | 1.18% | $2,182 | 29% |
| 75233 | 3.35% | 1.33% | $1,286 | 22% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Dallas, TX home prices have risen about 5.30% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.72% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,553. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 5.30% a year; over the past three, 3.85%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.72%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 33 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.35% to 8.52% on that same forward basis.
75225 at 8.52% a year, versus 75233 at 3.35% — a spread of about 5.2 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,553 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).