TerraVue / Markets / San Jose, CA
Over the past 20 years, San Jose home prices have risen 3.25% a year; over the past three, 2.78%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.06%. That is 0.96pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.06% a year, a home in San Jose would gain roughly 35% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.25%) with the last three years (2.78%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $3,396, the yearly rent bill in San Jose is about $40,752. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the San Jose market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 95123's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across San Jose's 28 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -0.85% to 5.44% a year — a spread of 6.3 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95131 | 5.44% | 8.02% | $3,647 | 57% |
| 95120 | 4.64% | 8.62% | $5,209 | 74% |
| 95136 | 4.40% | 5.37% | $3,334 | 45% |
| 95133 | 4.37% | 5.32% | $3,577 | 45% |
| 95139 | 4.20% | 5.45% | — | 44% |
| 95037 | 3.96% | 5.17% | $3,560 | 45% |
| 95138 | 3.92% | 4.40% | $4,093 | 54% |
| 95110 | 3.78% | 3.97% | $3,102 | 40% |
| 95123 | 3.65% | 3.67% | $3,221 | 45% |
| 95119 | 3.64% | 3.33% | $2,807 | 58% |
| 95111 | 3.64% | 4.10% | $3,500 | 20% |
| 95148 | 3.53% | 4.08% | $3,609 | 40% |
| 95121 | 3.52% | 3.55% | $3,396 | 34% |
| 95127 | 3.47% | 3.68% | $3,172 | 26% |
| 95125 | 3.37% | 3.61% | $3,360 | 56% |
| 95116 | 2.94% | 2.75% | $2,900 | 20% |
| 95124 | 2.91% | 2.94% | $3,951 | 59% |
| 95126 | 2.91% | 2.04% | $3,096 | 54% |
| 95122 | 2.87% | 2.68% | $3,210 | 17% |
| 95112 | 2.81% | 2.01% | $3,005 | 39% |
| 95117 | 2.57% | 0.28% | $2,747 | 44% |
| 95128 | 2.48% | 0.95% | $3,336 | 50% |
| 95132 | 2.32% | 0.91% | $4,020 | 50% |
| 95118 | 2.04% | 0.19% | $3,583 | 52% |
| 95134 | 0.99% | -2.18% | $3,533 | 77% |
| 95130 | 0.62% | -4.29% | $2,409 | 61% |
| 95135 | -0.34% | -4.35% | $4,325 | 64% |
| 95129 | -0.85% | -5.10% | $3,783 | 73% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years San Jose, CA home prices have risen about 3.25% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.06% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $3,396. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.25% a year; over the past three, 2.78%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.06%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 28 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -0.85% to 5.44% on that same forward basis.
95131 at 5.44% a year, versus 95129 at -0.85% — a spread of about 6.3 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $3,396 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).