TerraVue / Markets / San Francisco, CA
Over the past 20 years, San Francisco home prices have risen 2.54% a year; over the past three, 1.77%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 2.23%. That is 1.79pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 2.23% a year, a home in San Francisco would gain roughly 25% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (2.54%) with the last three years (1.77%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $4,014, the yearly rent bill in San Francisco is about $48,168. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the San Francisco market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 94112's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across San Francisco's 16 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -2.30% to 9.22% a year — a spread of 11.5 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94114 | 9.22% | 16.91% | $4,757 | 79% |
| 94121 | 4.08% | 6.54% | $3,689 | 64% |
| 94132 | 3.95% | 5.00% | $3,597 | 57% |
| 94116 | 3.34% | 4.00% | $3,042 | 57% |
| 94123 | 3.08% | 0.71% | $4,310 | 86% |
| 94131 | 2.70% | 3.16% | $4,084 | 78% |
| 94112 | 2.25% | 1.35% | $3,506 | 36% |
| 94127 | 2.23% | 2.90% | $5,567 | 66% |
| 94110 | 1.98% | 0.52% | $3,939 | 61% |
| 94107 | 1.97% | 0.19% | $4,350 | 75% |
| 94115 | 1.42% | 1.42% | $4,017 | 73% |
| 94122 | 1.30% | 0.22% | $3,594 | 61% |
| 94134 | 1.02% | -1.35% | $4,013 | 29% |
| 94117 | 0.88% | 0.88% | $4,000 | 79% |
| 94124 | 0.03% | -3.59% | $4,244 | 26% |
| 94118 | -2.30% | -7.41% | $4,016 | 72% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years San Francisco, CA home prices have risen about 2.54% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 2.23% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $4,014. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 2.54% a year; over the past three, 1.77%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 2.23%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 16 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -2.30% to 9.22% on that same forward basis.
94114 at 9.22% a year, versus 94118 at -2.30% — a spread of about 11.5 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $4,014 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).