TerraVue / Markets / Fresno, CA
Over the past 20 years, Fresno home prices have risen 2.20% a year; over the past three, 4.03%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 2.93%. That is 1.09pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 2.93% a year, a home in Fresno would gain roughly 34% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (2.20%) with the last three years (4.03%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,590, the yearly rent bill in Fresno is about $19,080. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Fresno market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 93722's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Fresno's 17 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.42% to 5.79% a year — a spread of 4.4 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93706 | 5.79% | 9.14% | $1,661 | 10% |
| 93701 | 5.59% | 8.77% | $1,272 | 8% |
| 93726 | 3.77% | 5.74% | $1,590 | 17% |
| 93725 | 3.67% | 5.30% | $935 | 12% |
| 93702 | 3.19% | 3.89% | $1,339 | 8% |
| 93705 | 2.98% | 4.19% | $1,460 | 14% |
| 93711 | 2.84% | 4.26% | $2,087 | 47% |
| 93703 | 2.67% | 3.34% | $1,508 | 9% |
| 93704 | 2.58% | 3.38% | $1,656 | 34% |
| 93727 | 2.58% | 3.40% | $2,395 | 24% |
| 93720 | 2.43% | 3.36% | $2,099 | 48% |
| 93710 | 2.38% | 2.83% | $1,580 | 28% |
| 93722 | 2.30% | 3.03% | $2,122 | 23% |
| 93728 | 2.22% | 2.16% | $1,456 | 18% |
| 93737 | 1.98% | 2.26% | $1,048 | 31% |
| 93723 | 1.73% | 1.97% | $2,500 | 28% |
| 93730 | 1.42% | 1.26% | $2,474 | 62% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Fresno, CA home prices have risen about 2.20% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 2.93% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,590. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 2.20% a year; over the past three, 4.03%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 2.93%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 17 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.42% to 5.79% on that same forward basis.
93706 at 5.79% a year, versus 93730 at 1.42% — a spread of about 4.4 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,590 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).