TerraVue / Markets / Sacramento, CA
Over the past 20 years, Sacramento home prices have risen 2.11% a year; over the past three, 1.31%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 1.79%. That is 2.23pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 1.79% a year, a home in Sacramento would gain roughly 19% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (2.11%) with the last three years (1.31%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $2,102, the yearly rent bill in Sacramento is about $25,224. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Sacramento market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 95823's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Sacramento's 18 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -0.03% to 7.53% a year — a spread of 7.6 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95814 | 7.53% | 9.62% | $1,958 | 39% |
| 95819 | 2.41% | 2.28% | $2,426 | 68% |
| 95815 | 2.38% | 2.56% | $1,813 | 16% |
| 95816 | 2.29% | 2.02% | $1,738 | 65% |
| 95831 | 2.26% | 2.44% | $2,223 | 49% |
| 95824 | 2.16% | 2.17% | $1,760 | 11% |
| 95818 | 2.10% | 1.54% | $2,009 | 62% |
| 95823 | 1.84% | 1.77% | $2,196 | 15% |
| 95820 | 1.82% | 0.92% | $2,244 | 26% |
| 95817 | 1.80% | -0.19% | $2,020 | 47% |
| 95822 | 1.76% | 1.22% | $2,153 | 28% |
| 95838 | 1.55% | 0.84% | $2,050 | 14% |
| 95811 | 1.42% | -0.35% | $1,904 | 54% |
| 95832 | 1.26% | 0.67% | $2,228 | 13% |
| 95833 | 1.22% | 0.68% | $2,166 | 31% |
| 95826 | 1.12% | 0.25% | $1,831 | 35% |
| 95834 | 0.94% | 0.09% | $2,302 | 38% |
| 95835 | -0.03% | -1.62% | $2,692 | 51% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Sacramento, CA home prices have risen about 2.11% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 1.79% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $2,102. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 2.11% a year; over the past three, 1.31%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 1.79%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 18 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -0.03% to 7.53% on that same forward basis.
95814 at 7.53% a year, versus 95835 at -0.03% — a spread of about 7.6 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $2,102 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).