TerraVue / Markets / San Diego, CA
Over the past 20 years, San Diego home prices have risen 3.18% a year; over the past three, 4.63%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.84%. That is essentially in line with the national average.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.84% a year, a home in San Diego would gain roughly 46% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.18%) with the last three years (4.63%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $2,892, the yearly rent bill in San Diego is about $34,704. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the San Diego market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 92126's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across San Diego's 32 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -0.69% to 8.03% a year — a spread of 8.7 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92127 | 8.03% | 12.18% | $3,699 | 75% |
| 92109 | 6.39% | 10.87% | $3,262 | 69% |
| 92101 | 6.19% | 5.65% | $2,890 | 56% |
| 92129 | 5.27% | 7.68% | $3,630 | 63% |
| 92106 | 5.00% | 7.55% | $2,798 | 61% |
| 92117 | 4.98% | 6.94% | $2,823 | 50% |
| 92103 | 4.73% | 7.30% | $2,717 | 64% |
| 92107 | 4.43% | 6.54% | $2,894 | 59% |
| 92124 | 4.41% | 6.62% | $3,075 | 54% |
| 92111 | 4.23% | 5.40% | $2,852 | 43% |
| 92102 | 4.15% | 5.16% | $2,409 | 28% |
| 92119 | 4.15% | 5.43% | $2,523 | 54% |
| 92126 | 4.05% | 4.88% | $2,926 | 48% |
| 92139 | 3.94% | 5.78% | $2,939 | 23% |
| 92120 | 3.75% | 4.58% | $2,681 | 56% |
| 92105 | 3.70% | 4.64% | $2,121 | 20% |
| 92114 | 3.61% | 4.72% | $2,806 | 20% |
| 92113 | 3.61% | 4.36% | $2,303 | 11% |
| 92115 | 3.52% | 4.09% | $2,601 | 38% |
| 92116 | 3.52% | 3.35% | $2,523 | 58% |
| 92104 | 3.45% | 3.20% | $2,534 | 53% |
| 92122 | 3.41% | 3.67% | $3,126 | 75% |
| 92121 | 3.39% | 3.39% | $4,079 | 77% |
| 92123 | 3.38% | 3.71% | $3,115 | 47% |
| 92154 | 2.81% | 3.45% | $2,880 | 21% |
| 92128 | 2.70% | 2.33% | $3,007 | 63% |
| 92173 | 2.16% | 2.12% | $2,252 | 11% |
| 92110 | 2.10% | 1.20% | $2,936 | 52% |
| 92130 | 2.02% | 0.36% | $4,074 | 81% |
| 92131 | 1.87% | 0.65% | $3,471 | 70% |
| 92014 | 0.37% | -2.46% | $5,875 | 83% |
| 92037 | -0.69% | -4.55% | $4,230 | 75% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years San Diego, CA home prices have risen about 3.18% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.84% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $2,892. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.18% a year; over the past three, 4.63%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.84%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 32 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -0.69% to 8.03% on that same forward basis.
92127 at 8.03% a year, versus 92037 at -0.69% — a spread of about 8.7 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $2,892 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).