TerraVue / Markets / Orlando, FL
Over the past 20 years, Orlando home prices have risen 3.56% a year; over the past three, 5.61%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.43%. That is 0.40pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.43% a year, a home in Orlando would gain roughly 54% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.56%) with the last three years (5.61%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,841, the yearly rent bill in Orlando is about $22,092. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Orlando market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 32822's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Orlando's 15 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 2.60% to 5.90% a year — a spread of 3.3 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32819 | 5.90% | 9.26% | $2,251 | 49% |
| 32827 | 5.85% | 5.85% | $2,341 | 56% |
| 32832 | 5.42% | 8.35% | $2,169 | 58% |
| 32839 | 5.12% | 6.95% | $1,565 | 21% |
| 32822 | 5.00% | 6.58% | $1,690 | 26% |
| 32811 | 4.59% | 4.66% | $1,646 | 26% |
| 32807 | 4.52% | 5.58% | $1,623 | 23% |
| 32805 | 4.37% | 5.21% | $1,469 | 18% |
| 32804 | 4.32% | 5.71% | $2,031 | 61% |
| 32835 | 4.20% | 5.88% | $1,801 | 39% |
| 32803 | 3.72% | 4.62% | $2,062 | 58% |
| 32801 | 3.65% | 5.29% | $1,877 | 62% |
| 32806 | 3.31% | 3.58% | $1,799 | 54% |
| 32829 | 2.71% | 1.90% | $2,094 | 39% |
| 32812 | 2.60% | 1.87% | $1,841 | 36% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Orlando, FL home prices have risen about 3.56% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.43% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,841. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.56% a year; over the past three, 5.61%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.43%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 15 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 2.60% to 5.90% on that same forward basis.
32819 at 5.90% a year, versus 32812 at 2.60% — a spread of about 3.3 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,841 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).