TerraVue / Markets / Miami, FL
Over the past 20 years, Miami home prices have risen 5.11% a year; over the past three, 9.92%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 6.99%. That is 2.97pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 6.99% a year, a home in Miami would gain roughly 97% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (5.11%) with the last three years (9.92%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $2,539, the yearly rent bill in Miami is about $30,468. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Miami market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 33125's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Miami's 14 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.50% to 12.76% a year — a spread of 9.3 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33137 | 12.76% | 21.14% | $3,609 | 51% |
| 33149 | 11.22% | 16.41% | $8,143 | 73% |
| 33129 | 10.85% | 17.69% | $3,645 | 66% |
| 33127 | 8.13% | 9.84% | $2,998 | 14% |
| 33150 | 7.76% | 10.53% | $2,122 | 14% |
| 33145 | 7.29% | 10.89% | $2,869 | 42% |
| 33133 | 7.27% | 10.61% | $3,580 | 60% |
| 33126 | 6.53% | 9.63% | $2,380 | 27% |
| 33142 | 6.26% | 8.44% | $2,356 | 12% |
| 33138 | 5.99% | 7.65% | $2,324 | 46% |
| 33125 | 5.79% | 7.97% | $2,314 | 20% |
| 33144 | 5.55% | 8.14% | $2,463 | 29% |
| 33135 | 5.01% | 6.18% | $2,182 | 20% |
| 33136 | 3.50% | 3.50% | $2,615 | 22% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Miami, FL home prices have risen about 5.11% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 6.99% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $2,539. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 5.11% a year; over the past three, 9.92%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 6.99%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 14 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.50% to 12.76% on that same forward basis.
33137 at 12.76% a year, versus 33136 at 3.50% — a spread of about 9.3 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $2,539 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).