TerraVue / Markets / Jacksonville, FL
Over the past 20 years, Jacksonville home prices have risen 3.28% a year; over the past three, 3.54%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.38%. That is 0.64pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.38% a year, a home in Jacksonville would gain roughly 39% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.28%) with the last three years (3.54%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,622, the yearly rent bill in Jacksonville is about $19,464. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Jacksonville market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 32210's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Jacksonville's 28 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.53% to 6.34% a year — a spread of 4.8 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32222 | 6.34% | 9.94% | $1,944 | 23% |
| 32246 | 5.36% | 6.93% | $1,699 | 38% |
| 32234 | 5.04% | 6.67% | $1,913 | 15% |
| 32256 | 4.49% | 7.13% | $1,520 | 54% |
| 32219 | 4.39% | 4.51% | $1,865 | 17% |
| 32233 | 4.13% | 4.30% | $1,785 | 42% |
| 32226 | 3.96% | 5.27% | $2,333 | 32% |
| 32211 | 3.92% | 4.82% | $1,418 | 19% |
| 32224 | 3.89% | 4.36% | $1,668 | 52% |
| 32254 | 3.71% | 4.24% | $1,318 | 7% |
| 32217 | 3.51% | 4.09% | $1,276 | 40% |
| 32244 | 3.41% | 3.31% | $1,673 | 22% |
| 32208 | 3.37% | 3.92% | $1,343 | 13% |
| 32225 | 3.17% | 2.95% | $1,768 | 42% |
| 32277 | 3.16% | 3.06% | $1,464 | 24% |
| 32216 | 3.07% | 2.64% | $1,657 | 32% |
| 32223 | 3.05% | 2.76% | $1,519 | 41% |
| 32258 | 2.98% | 2.51% | $1,770 | 44% |
| 32204 | 2.97% | 1.04% | $1,588 | 45% |
| 32209 | 2.81% | 2.78% | $1,162 | 10% |
| 32218 | 2.80% | 2.51% | $1,730 | 25% |
| 32205 | 2.77% | 2.04% | $1,546 | 35% |
| 32207 | 2.73% | 2.44% | $1,536 | 37% |
| 32210 | 2.65% | 2.39% | $1,399 | 22% |
| 32257 | 2.55% | 1.56% | $1,475 | 37% |
| 32220 | 2.20% | 1.23% | $1,800 | 16% |
| 32221 | 2.11% | 0.92% | $1,993 | 21% |
| 32206 | 1.53% | -0.28% | $1,345 | 18% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Jacksonville, FL home prices have risen about 3.28% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.38% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,622. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.28% a year; over the past three, 3.54%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.38%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 28 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.53% to 6.34% on that same forward basis.
32222 at 6.34% a year, versus 32206 at 1.53% — a spread of about 4.8 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,622 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).