TerraVue / Markets / Tucson, AZ
Over the past 20 years, Tucson home prices have risen 3.06% a year; over the past three, 3.42%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.20%. That is 0.82pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.20% a year, a home in Tucson would gain roughly 37% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.06%) with the last three years (3.42%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,293, the yearly rent bill in Tucson is about $15,516. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Tucson market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 85710's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Tucson's 15 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.93% to 4.83% a year — a spread of 2.9 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85714 | 4.83% | 6.29% | $1,025 | 9% |
| 85706 | 4.55% | 5.71% | $1,118 | 9% |
| 85713 | 3.79% | 4.24% | $1,293 | 19% |
| 85701 | 3.54% | 4.21% | $1,493 | 56% |
| 85705 | 3.43% | 3.93% | $1,093 | 20% |
| 85719 | 3.28% | 3.61% | $1,326 | 47% |
| 85711 | 3.23% | 3.64% | $1,127 | 31% |
| 85710 | 3.04% | 3.30% | $1,155 | 30% |
| 85730 | 2.84% | 2.89% | $1,534 | 20% |
| 85712 | 2.81% | 2.74% | $1,101 | 35% |
| 85716 | 2.78% | 2.69% | $1,237 | 43% |
| 85756 | 2.73% | 1.76% | $1,915 | 18% |
| 85715 | 2.53% | 2.23% | $1,605 | 46% |
| 85747 | 2.08% | 1.90% | $2,014 | 46% |
| 85748 | 1.93% | 1.30% | $1,941 | 48% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Tucson, AZ home prices have risen about 3.06% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.20% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,293. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.06% a year; over the past three, 3.42%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.20%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 15 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.93% to 4.83% on that same forward basis.
85714 at 4.83% a year, versus 85748 at 1.93% — a spread of about 2.9 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,293 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).