TerraVue / Markets / Phoenix, AZ
Over the past 20 years, Phoenix home prices have risen 3.88% a year; over the past three, 2.61%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.38%. That is 0.65pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.38% a year, a home in Phoenix would gain roughly 39% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.88%) with the last three years (2.61%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,612, the yearly rent bill in Phoenix is about $19,344. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Phoenix market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 85032's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Phoenix's 45 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.33% to 9.64% a year — a spread of 8.3 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85004 | 9.64% | 14.44% | $1,738 | 57% |
| 85045 | 6.33% | 10.36% | $2,748 | 63% |
| 85353 | 5.33% | 7.11% | $1,959 | 12% |
| 85043 | 5.29% | 7.09% | $1,967 | 13% |
| 85054 | 5.04% | 6.21% | $1,956 | 58% |
| 85018 | 4.93% | 4.95% | $1,671 | 55% |
| 85009 | 4.80% | 4.79% | $1,197 | 7% |
| 85254 | 4.29% | 4.77% | $2,576 | 59% |
| 85083 | 4.06% | 6.59% | $2,739 | 53% |
| 85020 | 4.02% | 3.88% | $1,391 | 41% |
| 85008 | 3.86% | 2.69% | $1,447 | 22% |
| 85014 | 3.82% | 2.56% | $1,458 | 40% |
| 85016 | 3.72% | 2.52% | $1,647 | 49% |
| 85040 | 3.70% | 2.56% | $1,897 | 13% |
| 85006 | 3.62% | 1.46% | $1,384 | 27% |
| 85003 | 3.58% | 3.12% | $1,661 | 50% |
| 85017 | 3.58% | 2.26% | $1,280 | 11% |
| 85027 | 3.52% | 2.91% | $1,487 | 30% |
| 85013 | 3.44% | 2.35% | $1,531 | 47% |
| 85028 | 3.42% | 2.90% | $2,915 | 57% |
| 85015 | 3.24% | 1.59% | $1,243 | 23% |
| 85031 | 3.21% | 1.54% | $1,363 | 7% |
| 85339 | 3.17% | 3.26% | $2,181 | 27% |
| 85033 | 3.16% | 1.50% | $1,342 | 6% |
| 85032 | 3.16% | 2.12% | $1,644 | 33% |
| 85012 | 3.10% | 2.43% | $1,580 | 61% |
| 85035 | 3.09% | 1.38% | $1,330 | 9% |
| 85021 | 3.08% | 2.23% | $1,210 | 33% |
| 85019 | 3.08% | 1.61% | $1,612 | 11% |
| 85022 | 3.05% | 2.56% | $1,382 | 33% |
| 85007 | 3.03% | 2.04% | $1,282 | 27% |
| 85086 | 3.00% | 3.46% | $2,199 | 41% |
| 85041 | 2.99% | 1.32% | $2,207 | 18% |
| 85050 | 2.85% | 2.45% | $2,509 | 57% |
| 85051 | 2.76% | 1.21% | $1,190 | 20% |
| 85085 | 2.72% | 2.74% | $1,782 | 49% |
| 85037 | 2.71% | 1.06% | $1,747 | 14% |
| 85042 | 2.60% | 0.52% | $1,581 | 27% |
| 85053 | 2.55% | 0.95% | $1,288 | 25% |
| 85024 | 2.52% | 1.41% | $1,857 | 45% |
| 85029 | 2.46% | 0.64% | $1,236 | 23% |
| 85023 | 2.44% | 0.81% | $1,295 | 31% |
| 85044 | 2.11% | 0.70% | $1,546 | 51% |
| 85048 | 1.81% | 0.84% | $2,006 | 59% |
| 85310 | 1.33% | -0.41% | $2,318 | 44% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Phoenix, AZ home prices have risen about 3.88% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.38% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,612. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.88% a year; over the past three, 2.61%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.38%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 45 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.33% to 9.64% on that same forward basis.
85004 at 9.64% a year, versus 85310 at 1.33% — a spread of about 8.3 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,612 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).