TerraVue / Markets / Nashville-Davidson, TN
Over the past 20 years, Nashville-Davidson home prices have risen 5.78% a year; over the past three, 3.11%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.71%. That is 0.69pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.71% a year, a home in Nashville-Davidson would gain roughly 59% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (5.78%) with the last three years (3.11%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,864, the yearly rent bill in Nashville-Davidson is about $22,368. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Nashville-Davidson market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 37013's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Nashville-Davidson's 22 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.69% to 6.54% a year — a spread of 2.8 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37189 | 6.54% | 7.57% | $1,950 | 41% |
| 37203 | 6.28% | 2.74% | $2,034 | 63% |
| 37206 | 6.16% | 4.26% | $2,123 | 57% |
| 37208 | 5.83% | 3.04% | $2,128 | 47% |
| 37218 | 5.68% | 5.64% | $2,097 | 26% |
| 37207 | 5.46% | 4.01% | $1,931 | 31% |
| 37210 | 5.24% | 2.84% | $1,833 | 33% |
| 37080 | 5.10% | 5.33% | $1,058 | 20% |
| 37216 | 5.07% | 2.13% | $1,981 | 52% |
| 37204 | 4.96% | 4.00% | $1,895 | 75% |
| 37221 | 4.85% | 4.48% | $1,674 | 58% |
| 37211 | 4.72% | 3.22% | $1,441 | 41% |
| 37214 | 4.72% | 3.33% | $1,576 | 43% |
| 37138 | 4.70% | 3.59% | $2,122 | 40% |
| 37212 | 4.64% | 3.00% | $1,997 | 75% |
| 37209 | 4.42% | 2.07% | $1,773 | 54% |
| 37072 | 4.35% | 3.54% | $1,756 | 30% |
| 37115 | 4.31% | 2.42% | $1,626 | 24% |
| 37013 | 4.11% | 2.68% | $1,568 | 30% |
| 37076 | 4.04% | 2.45% | $1,446 | 39% |
| 37217 | 3.80% | 1.51% | $1,415 | 31% |
| 37205 | 3.69% | 1.57% | $2,102 | 76% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Nashville-Davidson, TN home prices have risen about 5.78% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.71% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,864. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 5.78% a year; over the past three, 3.11%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.71%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 22 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.69% to 6.54% on that same forward basis.
37189 at 6.54% a year, versus 37205 at 3.69% — a spread of about 2.8 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,864 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).