TerraVue / Markets / Memphis, TN
Over the past 20 years, Memphis home prices have risen 3.12% a year; over the past three, 3.12%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.12%. That is 0.91pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.12% a year, a home in Memphis would gain roughly 36% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.12%) with the last three years (3.12%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,240, the yearly rent bill in Memphis is about $14,880. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Memphis market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 38016's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Memphis's 23 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -0.13% to 8.39% a year — a spread of 8.5 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38108 | 8.39% | 14.52% | $949 | 9% |
| 38114 | 5.55% | 8.48% | $952 | 13% |
| 38116 | 5.14% | 7.66% | $905 | 20% |
| 38128 | 4.61% | 6.39% | $1,290 | 14% |
| 38127 | 4.50% | 6.01% | $1,069 | 11% |
| 38118 | 4.39% | 6.06% | $1,240 | 12% |
| 38109 | 4.10% | 4.79% | $1,125 | 13% |
| 38103 | 3.66% | 4.68% | $1,563 | 62% |
| 38141 | 3.65% | 3.97% | $1,547 | 17% |
| 38122 | 3.50% | 3.33% | $1,156 | 24% |
| 38115 | 3.23% | 3.27% | $1,056 | 16% |
| 38134 | 3.09% | 2.66% | $1,195 | 20% |
| 38106 | 3.08% | 3.49% | $934 | 13% |
| 38018 | 2.35% | 1.46% | $1,799 | 45% |
| 38125 | 2.21% | 1.56% | $1,583 | 36% |
| 38016 | 2.07% | 1.06% | $1,601 | 43% |
| 38119 | 1.70% | 0.42% | $1,528 | 52% |
| 38120 | 1.54% | 0.04% | $1,535 | 70% |
| 38111 | 1.49% | -0.33% | $1,270 | 39% |
| 38117 | 1.35% | -0.88% | $1,552 | 61% |
| 38112 | 0.97% | -1.71% | $1,327 | 39% |
| 38104 | 0.30% | -3.06% | $1,148 | 50% |
| 38107 | -0.13% | -4.35% | $1,104 | 23% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Memphis, TN home prices have risen about 3.12% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.12% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,240. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.12% a year; over the past three, 3.12%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.12%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 23 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -0.13% to 8.39% on that same forward basis.
38108 at 8.39% a year, versus 38107 at -0.13% — a spread of about 8.5 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,240 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).