TerraVue / Markets / Mesa, AZ / 85209
Over the past 20 years, home prices in 85209 have risen 4.88% a year; over the past three, 8.25%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 6.23%. That is 2.20pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
ZIP 85209 is accelerating — the last three years have run 3.37pp above its own long-run pace.
Year-to-year swings have been large (12.5pp standard deviation) — the average hides some sharp individual years, and timing matters more here.
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher | 32.3% |
| Monthly rent — Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes) | $1,938 |
| Median gross rent, 3-bedroom (ACS) | $1,741 |
| PFAS detected in drinking water (EPA UCMR5) | Yes — 3 contaminants |
| FHFA data coverage | 33 years (1992–2024) |
TerraVue's app adds school ratings, walkability, and what's nearby (grocery, dining, trails, water) for any address you look up.
This page describes ZIP 85209. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 85209's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
Over the past 20 years, prices have risen about 4.88% a year, based on 33 years of FHFA repeat-sales data (1992–2024). Over the most recent three years the pace has been 8.25%, which makes this market accelerating. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 6.23%.
On appreciation alone it runs +2.20pp versus the national average. But whether buying beats renting there depends on the price of the specific home, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates that directly rather than inferring it from the average.
Around $1,938 a month, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).