TerraVue / Markets / Seattle, WA
Over the past 20 years, Seattle home prices have risen 4.26% a year; over the past three, 1.34%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.09%. That is 0.93pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.09% a year, a home in Seattle would gain roughly 36% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.26%) with the last three years (1.34%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $2,159, the yearly rent bill in Seattle is about $25,908. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Seattle market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 98103's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Seattle's 19 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.10% to 4.20% a year — a spread of 3.1 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98116 | 4.20% | 3.93% | $2,134 | 68% |
| 98136 | 4.08% | 3.86% | $2,182 | 65% |
| 98105 | 3.99% | 3.45% | $2,167 | 77% |
| 98125 | 3.77% | 2.43% | $1,854 | 59% |
| 98115 | 3.64% | 2.29% | $2,255 | 77% |
| 98106 | 3.63% | 2.05% | $2,315 | 43% |
| 98199 | 3.53% | 2.44% | $2,494 | 75% |
| 98126 | 3.52% | 2.31% | $2,006 | 61% |
| 98118 | 3.12% | 1.05% | $1,786 | 49% |
| 98119 | 3.12% | 1.77% | $2,047 | 72% |
| 98117 | 3.11% | 1.08% | $2,419 | 72% |
| 98122 | 3.01% | 1.51% | $2,014 | 70% |
| 98103 | 2.94% | 0.98% | $2,159 | 77% |
| 98108 | 2.83% | 0.33% | $2,105 | 36% |
| 98112 | 2.66% | 1.05% | $2,256 | 82% |
| 98107 | 2.54% | -0.04% | $2,177 | 76% |
| 98144 | 2.24% | -0.63% | $1,955 | 62% |
| 98109 | 1.85% | -0.86% | $2,467 | 76% |
| 98102 | 1.10% | -2.53% | $2,020 | 80% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Seattle, WA home prices have risen about 4.26% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.09% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $2,159. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.26% a year; over the past three, 1.34%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.09%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 19 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.10% to 4.20% on that same forward basis.
98116 at 4.20% a year, versus 98102 at 1.10% — a spread of about 3.1 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $2,159 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).