TerraVue / Markets / Raleigh, NC
Over the past 20 years, Raleigh home prices have risen 4.69% a year; over the past three, 4.36%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.56%. That is 0.54pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.56% a year, a home in Raleigh would gain roughly 56% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.69%) with the last three years (4.36%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,582, the yearly rent bill in Raleigh is about $18,984. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Raleigh market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 27610's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Raleigh's 15 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.58% to 7.12% a year — a spread of 3.5 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27617 | 7.12% | 11.17% | $1,526 | 66% |
| 27614 | 5.53% | 8.12% | $1,582 | 62% |
| 27609 | 5.24% | 4.94% | $1,561 | 59% |
| 27606 | 5.11% | 5.83% | $1,520 | 57% |
| 27607 | 5.00% | 5.44% | $1,558 | 71% |
| 27601 | 4.74% | 1.28% | $1,674 | 47% |
| 27613 | 4.68% | 5.23% | $1,370 | 67% |
| 27604 | 4.63% | 4.03% | $1,595 | 41% |
| 27605 | 4.52% | 4.46% | $1,712 | 72% |
| 27608 | 4.40% | 3.89% | $2,249 | 81% |
| 27615 | 4.37% | 4.19% | $1,507 | 62% |
| 27610 | 4.23% | 2.45% | $1,877 | 27% |
| 27612 | 3.91% | 3.20% | $1,448 | 67% |
| 27603 | 3.90% | 3.21% | $1,703 | 48% |
| 27616 | 3.58% | 2.69% | $1,632 | 46% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Raleigh, NC home prices have risen about 4.69% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.56% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,582. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.69% a year; over the past three, 4.36%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.56%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 15 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.58% to 7.12% on that same forward basis.
27617 at 7.12% a year, versus 27616 at 3.58% — a spread of about 3.5 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,582 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).