TerraVue / Markets / Portland, OR
Over the past 20 years, Portland home prices have risen 3.98% a year; over the past three, 0.09%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 2.42%. That is 1.60pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 2.42% a year, a home in Portland would gain roughly 27% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.98%) with the last three years (0.09%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,672, the yearly rent bill in Portland is about $20,064. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Portland market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 97206's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Portland's 25 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 0.61% to 3.06% a year — a spread of 2.4 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97220 | 3.06% | 0.98% | $1,572 | 34% |
| 97233 | 2.95% | 1.04% | $1,542 | 18% |
| 97221 | 2.92% | 1.73% | $1,921 | 74% |
| 97211 | 2.83% | 0.40% | $2,269 | 54% |
| 97205 | 2.81% | 2.00% | $1,764 | 58% |
| 97236 | 2.74% | 0.90% | $1,584 | 22% |
| 97218 | 2.70% | -0.23% | $1,756 | 49% |
| 97227 | 2.70% | 0.17% | $1,560 | 62% |
| 97214 | 2.56% | 0.55% | $1,677 | 67% |
| 97216 | 2.49% | -0.04% | $1,705 | 32% |
| 97215 | 2.48% | 0.22% | $1,488 | 63% |
| 97212 | 2.48% | 0.61% | $2,235 | 72% |
| 97230 | 2.48% | 0.41% | $1,552 | 29% |
| 97206 | 2.44% | -0.51% | $1,794 | 47% |
| 97203 | 2.36% | -0.75% | $1,803 | 45% |
| 97217 | 2.32% | -0.67% | $1,672 | 58% |
| 97202 | 2.27% | -0.07% | $1,623 | 62% |
| 97266 | 2.21% | -0.74% | $1,820 | 27% |
| 97213 | 2.21% | -0.40% | $1,610 | 60% |
| 97219 | 2.14% | -0.14% | $1,845 | 66% |
| 97232 | 2.09% | 0.20% | $1,604 | 65% |
| 97201 | 1.90% | 0.28% | $1,542 | 67% |
| 97239 | 1.60% | -0.67% | $1,874 | 73% |
| 97210 | 1.42% | -0.28% | $1,643 | 72% |
| 97231 | 0.61% | -3.09% | $1,365 | 60% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Portland, OR home prices have risen about 3.98% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 2.42% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,672. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.98% a year; over the past three, 0.09%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 2.42%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 25 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 0.61% to 3.06% on that same forward basis.
97220 at 3.06% a year, versus 97231 at 0.61% — a spread of about 2.4 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,672 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).