TerraVue / Markets / Philadelphia, PA
Over the past 20 years, Philadelphia home prices have risen 3.81% a year; over the past three, 3.58%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.84%. That is essentially in line with the national average.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.84% a year, a home in Philadelphia would gain roughly 46% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.81%) with the last three years (3.58%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,637, the yearly rent bill in Philadelphia is about $19,644. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Philadelphia market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 19111's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Philadelphia's 45 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.77% to 9.01% a year — a spread of 7.2 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19132 | 9.01% | 6.49% | $1,415 | 11% |
| 19142 | 7.43% | 10.91% | $1,428 | 12% |
| 19122 | 6.04% | 5.33% | $1,834 | 40% |
| 19131 | 5.50% | 6.70% | $1,648 | 32% |
| 19143 | 4.95% | 4.64% | $1,425 | 29% |
| 19140 | 4.78% | 4.14% | $1,359 | 9% |
| 19120 | 4.77% | 5.60% | $1,414 | 14% |
| 19444 | 4.49% | 6.96% | $2,248 | 68% |
| 19144 | 4.45% | 4.27% | $1,459 | 34% |
| 19121 | 4.39% | 0.48% | $1,655 | 25% |
| 19125 | 4.18% | 2.70% | $1,816 | 61% |
| 19124 | 4.08% | 3.85% | $1,250 | 15% |
| 19119 | 4.03% | 4.53% | $1,637 | 55% |
| 19107 | 4.01% | 7.01% | $2,018 | 71% |
| 19151 | 3.96% | 4.15% | $1,479 | 28% |
| 19145 | 3.96% | 3.17% | $1,712 | 35% |
| 19114 | 3.82% | 4.83% | $1,586 | 30% |
| 19126 | 3.79% | 3.48% | $1,276 | 24% |
| 19115 | 3.68% | 5.09% | $1,678 | 35% |
| 19135 | 3.67% | 4.07% | $1,360 | 16% |
| 19154 | 3.65% | 4.59% | $1,708 | 25% |
| 19116 | 3.54% | 4.34% | $1,800 | 38% |
| 19118 | 3.50% | 4.13% | $1,791 | 73% |
| 19134 | 3.50% | 1.57% | $1,421 | 17% |
| 19128 | 3.48% | 4.30% | $1,849 | 54% |
| 19141 | 3.46% | 1.98% | $1,279 | 14% |
| 19136 | 3.31% | 3.52% | $1,500 | 23% |
| 19148 | 3.31% | 2.43% | $1,704 | 35% |
| 19111 | 3.26% | 3.97% | $1,490 | 25% |
| 19138 | 3.25% | 1.71% | $1,596 | 16% |
| 19129 | 3.18% | 3.23% | $1,788 | 63% |
| 19146 | 3.17% | 1.85% | $2,006 | 61% |
| 19150 | 3.10% | 2.21% | $1,329 | 30% |
| 19123 | 3.09% | 3.09% | $2,125 | 64% |
| 19152 | 3.04% | 3.43% | $1,573 | 30% |
| 19127 | 3.03% | 3.94% | $2,276 | 76% |
| 19147 | 3.03% | 2.75% | $1,981 | 69% |
| 19104 | 3.01% | 1.66% | $1,928 | 46% |
| 19103 | 2.60% | 2.21% | $2,215 | 83% |
| 19130 | 2.54% | 2.33% | $1,943 | 77% |
| 19137 | 2.53% | 0.71% | $1,290 | 21% |
| 19149 | 2.49% | 1.74% | $1,528 | 15% |
| 19139 | 2.33% | -0.71% | $1,464 | 20% |
| 19153 | 2.27% | 0.74% | $1,335 | 26% |
| 19106 | 1.77% | 1.38% | $2,183 | 80% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Philadelphia, PA home prices have risen about 3.81% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.84% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,637. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.81% a year; over the past three, 3.58%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.84%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 45 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.77% to 9.01% on that same forward basis.
19132 at 9.01% a year, versus 19106 at 1.77% — a spread of about 7.2 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,637 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).