TerraVue / Markets / New York, NY
Over the past 20 years, New York home prices have risen 3.82% a year; over the past three, 4.14%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.04%. That is essentially in line with the national average.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.04% a year, a home in New York would gain roughly 49% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.82%) with the last three years (4.14%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $2,742, the yearly rent bill in New York is about $32,904. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the New York market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 11368's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across New York's 108 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from -1.63% to 10.03% a year — a spread of 11.7 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10459 | 10.03% | 12.76% | $2,983 | 14% |
| 11231 | 8.19% | 5.13% | $4,402 | 69% |
| 11216 | 8.13% | 6.74% | $3,449 | 55% |
| 11355 | 6.92% | 9.31% | $2,550 | 23% |
| 10475 | 6.77% | 11.24% | $1,166 | 26% |
| 10468 | 6.76% | 16.37% | $2,332 | 15% |
| 11226 | 6.74% | 7.44% | $2,907 | 35% |
| 10457 | 6.70% | 9.25% | $2,721 | 15% |
| 11103 | 6.38% | 5.87% | $2,844 | 53% |
| 11213 | 6.01% | 3.91% | $2,965 | 32% |
| 11415 | 5.84% | 9.59% | $2,486 | 51% |
| 11105 | 5.81% | 7.04% | $2,996 | 53% |
| 10463 | 5.70% | 7.82% | $2,733 | 43% |
| 10472 | 5.68% | 7.45% | $2,917 | 14% |
| 11104 | 5.41% | 4.18% | $2,828 | 50% |
| 10473 | 5.37% | 7.61% | $3,535 | 22% |
| 11372 | 5.33% | 4.51% | $2,370 | 34% |
| 11212 | 5.25% | 6.72% | $2,775 | 16% |
| 10467 | 5.09% | 7.43% | $2,709 | 22% |
| 11416 | 4.92% | 7.28% | $1,748 | 26% |
| 11427 | 4.91% | 6.83% | $1,740 | 35% |
| 11433 | 4.87% | 6.37% | $3,066 | 17% |
| 11208 | 4.81% | 5.48% | $3,131 | 15% |
| 11435 | 4.75% | 6.12% | $2,352 | 33% |
| 11414 | 4.65% | 7.36% | $3,000 | 31% |
| 11230 | 4.64% | 5.68% | $2,691 | 43% |
| 11207 | 4.62% | 4.77% | $3,191 | 19% |
| 11374 | 4.54% | 6.05% | $2,991 | 52% |
| 10470 | 4.44% | 6.16% | $2,783 | 39% |
| 11692 | 4.42% | 6.49% | $3,439 | 29% |
| 11385 | 4.39% | 5.55% | $3,229 | 33% |
| 10309 | 4.39% | 6.68% | $1,971 | 37% |
| 10303 | 4.26% | 6.00% | $3,328 | 28% |
| 11238 | 4.24% | 1.21% | $3,978 | 70% |
| 11412 | 4.19% | 5.08% | $3,200 | 25% |
| 11225 | 4.15% | 1.25% | $3,138 | 46% |
| 11426 | 4.14% | 5.99% | $2,039 | 42% |
| 11215 | 4.14% | 0.09% | $3,975 | 80% |
| 11360 | 4.12% | 5.43% | $2,896 | 51% |
| 11422 | 4.10% | 5.40% | $1,940 | 30% |
| 11418 | 4.05% | 5.11% | $2,837 | 30% |
| 11429 | 4.05% | 4.85% | $1,668 | 27% |
| 11362 | 4.03% | 6.30% | $3,950 | 53% |
| 11228 | 4.01% | 4.28% | $2,852 | 38% |
| 11203 | 3.93% | 4.05% | $2,881 | 26% |
| 11368 | 3.89% | 2.09% | $2,750 | 14% |
| 10466 | 3.84% | 4.80% | $2,994 | 24% |
| 11691 | 3.83% | 4.71% | $3,185 | 25% |
| 11236 | 3.79% | 4.23% | $3,244 | 28% |
| 11379 | 3.78% | 4.53% | $2,586 | 36% |
| 10308 | 3.77% | 5.20% | $1,762 | 41% |
| 11361 | 3.74% | 4.34% | $2,623 | 47% |
| 11432 | 3.72% | 4.19% | $2,369 | 37% |
| 10471 | 3.72% | 4.83% | $2,575 | 59% |
| 10306 | 3.67% | 5.08% | $2,509 | 32% |
| 11220 | 3.65% | -0.08% | $2,625 | 25% |
| 11364 | 3.60% | 4.47% | $2,889 | 48% |
| 10301 | 3.56% | 4.88% | $2,983 | 40% |
| 11413 | 3.54% | 3.92% | $3,200 | 29% |
| 10312 | 3.46% | 4.69% | $2,614 | 39% |
| 11204 | 3.46% | 3.24% | $2,733 | 30% |
| 10465 | 3.42% | 4.45% | $2,703 | 29% |
| 10314 | 3.42% | 4.16% | $2,897 | 37% |
| 11420 | 3.42% | 3.78% | $2,013 | 21% |
| 11210 | 3.41% | 3.82% | $2,767 | 39% |
| 11436 | 3.40% | 3.09% | $1,582 | 23% |
| 11423 | 3.40% | 3.38% | $1,785 | 35% |
| 11417 | 3.36% | 3.54% | $1,822 | 26% |
| 10469 | 3.35% | 3.78% | $2,838 | 28% |
| 11369 | 3.34% | 3.59% | $1,821 | 22% |
| 11367 | 3.27% | 3.34% | $2,494 | 44% |
| 11223 | 3.27% | 2.14% | $2,799 | 34% |
| 11693 | 3.25% | 3.52% | $2,885 | 36% |
| 10461 | 3.25% | 4.08% | $2,498 | 27% |
| 11428 | 3.23% | 3.22% | $1,787 | 27% |
| 11218 | 3.22% | -1.76% | $3,043 | 50% |
| 11365 | 3.19% | 3.42% | $2,589 | 38% |
| 10464 | 3.19% | 5.01% | $1,868 | 54% |
| 11375 | 3.16% | 2.92% | $3,170 | 62% |
| 11419 | 3.16% | 2.99% | $1,899 | 20% |
| 10310 | 3.15% | 3.79% | $2,855 | 32% |
| 11366 | 3.12% | 3.16% | $2,975 | 52% |
| 11357 | 3.12% | 2.98% | $2,655 | 37% |
| 11373 | 3.09% | 1.50% | $2,505 | 30% |
| 10304 | 3.09% | 3.56% | $2,709 | 31% |
| 11434 | 3.01% | 2.43% | $2,742 | 22% |
| 11411 | 2.95% | 2.78% | $1,691 | 33% |
| 11370 | 2.92% | 0.88% | $2,648 | 25% |
| 11378 | 2.90% | 2.32% | $2,611 | 27% |
| 10305 | 2.88% | 2.92% | $2,925 | 33% |
| 11224 | 2.79% | 1.37% | $3,298 | 34% |
| 10302 | 2.77% | 2.95% | $3,166 | 29% |
| 11229 | 2.73% | 2.28% | $2,565 | 41% |
| 11234 | 2.64% | 2.15% | $2,673 | 38% |
| 11358 | 2.61% | 2.25% | $2,629 | 36% |
| 11004 | 2.60% | 2.38% | $3,800 | 48% |
| 10462 | 2.56% | 2.22% | $2,722 | 28% |
| 10307 | 2.54% | 2.62% | — | 39% |
| 11235 | 2.53% | 1.91% | $2,858 | 50% |
| 11214 | 2.38% | 0.44% | $2,708 | 32% |
| 11354 | 2.35% | 1.66% | $2,659 | 30% |
| 11209 | 2.23% | 0.75% | $2,440 | 53% |
| 11421 | 2.21% | 1.37% | $2,300 | 27% |
| 11219 | 1.65% | -3.58% | $2,668 | 20% |
| 11694 | 1.12% | -0.47% | $2,538 | 43% |
| 11377 | 1.11% | -1.57% | $2,878 | 32% |
| 11356 | 0.41% | -2.76% | $2,803 | 24% |
| 11363 | -1.63% | -6.02% | $2,994 | 56% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years New York, NY home prices have risen about 3.82% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.04% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $2,742. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.82% a year; over the past three, 4.14%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.04%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 108 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from -1.63% to 10.03% on that same forward basis.
10459 at 10.03% a year, versus 11363 at -1.63% — a spread of about 11.7 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $2,742 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).