TerraVue / Markets / Las Vegas, NV
Over the past 20 years, Las Vegas home prices have risen 2.44% a year; over the past three, 4.27%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.29%. That is 0.73pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.29% a year, a home in Las Vegas would gain roughly 38% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (2.44%) with the last three years (4.27%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,779, the yearly rent bill in Las Vegas is about $21,348. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Las Vegas market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 89108's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Las Vegas's 17 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 2.05% to 8.30% a year — a spread of 6.2 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89138 | 8.30% | 8.49% | $2,900 | 63% |
| 89143 | 7.97% | 13.63% | $2,229 | 33% |
| 89144 | 6.90% | 10.81% | $2,003 | 47% |
| 89106 | 4.85% | 6.93% | $1,628 | 11% |
| 89149 | 3.67% | 6.13% | $1,838 | 36% |
| 89101 | 3.23% | 3.36% | $1,180 | 10% |
| 89104 | 3.18% | 3.73% | $1,206 | 15% |
| 89102 | 3.03% | 3.39% | $1,346 | 19% |
| 89108 | 2.97% | 3.77% | $1,404 | 14% |
| 89131 | 2.84% | 4.06% | $2,038 | 34% |
| 89145 | 2.80% | 3.46% | $1,799 | 27% |
| 89107 | 2.79% | 2.82% | $1,495 | 16% |
| 89134 | 2.60% | 3.38% | $2,386 | 44% |
| 89117 | 2.54% | 3.69% | $1,628 | 33% |
| 89130 | 2.45% | 2.98% | $1,810 | 20% |
| 89128 | 2.41% | 2.91% | $1,632 | 30% |
| 89129 | 2.05% | 2.40% | $1,779 | 32% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Las Vegas, NV home prices have risen about 2.44% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.29% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,779. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 2.44% a year; over the past three, 4.27%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.29%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 17 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 2.05% to 8.30% on that same forward basis.
89138 at 8.30% a year, versus 89129 at 2.05% — a spread of about 6.2 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,779 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).