TerraVue / Markets / Denver, CO
Over the past 20 years, Denver home prices have risen 4.64% a year; over the past three, 1.01%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.24%. That is 0.78pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.24% a year, a home in Denver would gain roughly 38% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.64%) with the last three years (1.01%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,876, the yearly rent bill in Denver is about $22,512. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Denver market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 80219's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Denver's 27 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 1.62% to 7.10% a year — a spread of 5.5 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80238 | 7.10% | 7.34% | $2,121 | 76% |
| 80210 | 3.73% | 2.13% | $2,144 | 75% |
| 80212 | 3.72% | 1.06% | $2,607 | 65% |
| 80211 | 3.69% | 0.93% | $2,173 | 68% |
| 80235 | 3.66% | 2.60% | $1,845 | 42% |
| 80205 | 3.59% | 0.75% | $1,935 | 59% |
| 80239 | 3.55% | 1.84% | $1,770 | 18% |
| 80123 | 3.50% | 1.86% | $1,935 | 52% |
| 80230 | 3.47% | 3.56% | $2,120 | 74% |
| 80224 | 3.46% | 1.66% | $1,509 | 58% |
| 80204 | 3.45% | 0.20% | $1,999 | 49% |
| 80209 | 3.30% | 1.52% | $2,107 | 80% |
| 80237 | 3.25% | 1.78% | $1,792 | 62% |
| 80246 | 3.22% | 0.50% | $1,364 | 57% |
| 80220 | 3.13% | 1.09% | $1,759 | 63% |
| 80219 | 3.12% | 0.43% | $2,354 | 20% |
| 80207 | 3.08% | 0.40% | $2,575 | 59% |
| 80206 | 2.98% | 0.93% | $1,851 | 78% |
| 80236 | 2.85% | 0.40% | $2,055 | 34% |
| 80218 | 2.82% | 1.13% | $1,492 | 72% |
| 80222 | 2.76% | -0.08% | $1,721 | 54% |
| 80231 | 2.75% | 0.77% | $1,509 | 52% |
| 80223 | 2.61% | -0.50% | $1,807 | 43% |
| 80203 | 2.40% | -0.25% | $1,543 | 68% |
| 80249 | 2.19% | -0.36% | $1,944 | 30% |
| 80216 | 1.73% | -3.36% | $1,876 | 36% |
| 80247 | 1.62% | -0.92% | $1,843 | 42% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Denver, CO home prices have risen about 4.64% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.24% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,876. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.64% a year; over the past three, 1.01%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.24%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 27 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 1.62% to 7.10% on that same forward basis.
80238 at 7.10% a year, versus 80247 at 1.62% — a spread of about 5.5 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,876 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).