TerraVue / Markets / Boston, MA
Over the past 20 years, Boston home prices have risen 4.04% a year; over the past three, 5.27%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.49%. That is 0.47pp above the national average — over a 10-year hold, that gap compounds into a meaningful difference in equity.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.49% a year, a home in Boston would gain roughly 55% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (4.04%) with the last three years (5.27%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $3,240, the yearly rent bill in Boston is about $38,880. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Boston market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 02124's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Boston's 17 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 2.72% to 6.96% a year — a spread of 4.2 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02135 | 6.96% | 11.22% | $3,151 | 71% |
| 02121 | 6.19% | 8.89% | $3,246 | 21% |
| 02129 | 6.15% | 7.51% | $3,422 | 71% |
| 02119 | 5.81% | 8.09% | $3,693 | 31% |
| 02128 | 5.64% | 7.02% | $3,120 | 36% |
| 02130 | 5.22% | 7.08% | $3,379 | 71% |
| 02134 | 5.02% | 5.15% | $2,938 | 76% |
| 02120 | 4.45% | 2.37% | $4,517 | 43% |
| 02127 | 3.70% | 2.73% | $4,142 | 70% |
| 02136 | 3.60% | 4.29% | $2,708 | 33% |
| 02131 | 3.59% | 3.61% | $2,992 | 50% |
| 02126 | 3.54% | 4.04% | $3,240 | 24% |
| 02124 | 3.54% | 3.18% | $2,991 | 30% |
| 02132 | 3.31% | 3.51% | $2,723 | 64% |
| 02125 | 3.05% | 1.58% | $3,394 | 40% |
| 02122 | 3.01% | 2.01% | $3,091 | 36% |
| 02116 | 2.72% | 3.26% | $3,353 | 77% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Boston, MA home prices have risen about 4.04% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.49% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $3,240. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 4.04% a year; over the past three, 5.27%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.49%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 17 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 2.72% to 6.96% on that same forward basis.
02135 at 6.96% a year, versus 02116 at 2.72% — a spread of about 4.2 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $3,240 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).