TerraVue / Markets / Baltimore, MD
Over the past 20 years, Baltimore home prices have risen 2.58% a year; over the past three, 3.89%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 3.10%. That is 0.92pp below the national average, which matters more the longer you hold.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 3.10% a year, a home in Baltimore would gain roughly 36% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (2.58%) with the last three years (3.89%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,669, the yearly rent bill in Baltimore is about $20,028. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Baltimore market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 21215's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Baltimore's 21 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 0.64% to 4.41% a year — a spread of 3.8 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21205 | 4.41% | 4.81% | $1,750 | 15% |
| 21215 | 3.98% | 5.00% | $1,377 | 25% |
| 21213 | 3.98% | 5.13% | $1,741 | 19% |
| 21202 | 3.85% | 4.45% | $1,669 | 47% |
| 21217 | 3.79% | 5.26% | $1,632 | 21% |
| 21218 | 3.75% | 5.16% | $1,498 | 45% |
| 21206 | 3.70% | 5.24% | $1,642 | 24% |
| 21214 | 3.68% | 4.87% | $1,623 | 40% |
| 21239 | 3.64% | 5.17% | $1,503 | 31% |
| 21211 | 3.47% | 4.09% | $2,108 | 61% |
| 21209 | 3.29% | 4.35% | $1,798 | 61% |
| 21210 | 3.21% | 5.34% | $1,674 | 82% |
| 21212 | 3.12% | 4.67% | $1,687 | 55% |
| 21229 | 3.10% | 3.74% | $1,703 | 22% |
| 21226 | 2.58% | 3.23% | $1,417 | 30% |
| 21216 | 2.32% | 0.23% | $1,569 | 15% |
| 21224 | 2.19% | 2.80% | $2,109 | 49% |
| 21231 | 1.81% | 2.82% | $2,126 | 66% |
| 21223 | 1.71% | 0.37% | $1,526 | 11% |
| 21230 | 1.32% | 1.79% | $2,170 | 57% |
| 21201 | 0.64% | -0.08% | $1,634 | 47% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Baltimore, MD home prices have risen about 2.58% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 3.10% — below the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,669. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 2.58% a year; over the past three, 3.89%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 3.10%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 21 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 0.64% to 4.41% on that same forward basis.
21205 at 4.41% a year, versus 21201 at 0.64% — a spread of about 3.8 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,669 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).