TerraVue / Markets / Albuquerque, NM
Over the past 20 years, Albuquerque home prices have risen 3.43% a year; over the past three, 5.13%. TerraVue's forward estimate, which weights both, is 4.11%. That is essentially in line with the national average.
Appreciation is only one side of the buy-vs-rent question, but it's the side people guess at most badly. At the forward estimate of 4.11% a year, a home in Albuquerque would gain roughly 50% in value over a decade — before any of the costs that actually decide the question: closing costs, maintenance, property tax, the mortgage interest you'd pay, and what your down payment would have earned invested instead.
Worth being explicit about what that estimate is: it blends the 20-year record (3.43%) with the last three years (5.13%), so a market in a sharp recent run-up or correction lands between the two rather than at either extreme. It is an estimate, not a forecast anyone can guarantee — which is exactly why TerraVue simulates a range of outcomes instead of quoting one number.
Rent is the other side. At a median of $1,391, the yearly rent bill in Albuquerque is about $16,692. Whether buying beats that depends almost entirely on the price you'd pay and how long you'd stay — which is what the simulator is for.
This page describes the Albuquerque market as a whole. Whether buying beats renting depends on the price you'd pay, your down payment, and how long you'd stay — TerraVue simulates about 1,000 market scenarios on those inputs and returns the probability, not a single guessed number. It'll start with 87120's real appreciation and rent already loaded.
Analyze a property free →Averages hide a lot. Across Albuquerque's 13 ZIP codes, long-run appreciation ranges from 3.13% to 5.27% a year — a spread of 2.1 percentage points. Over a 10-year hold, that difference compounds into a substantially different outcome for two buyers in the same city.
| ZIP | Appreciation/yr | Recent 3yr | Rent | Bachelor's+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87102 | 5.27% | 6.56% | $1,105 | 33% |
| 87107 | 4.94% | 6.81% | $1,273 | 37% |
| 87112 | 4.55% | 5.95% | $1,482 | 37% |
| 87120 | 4.20% | 5.32% | $1,606 | 37% |
| 87104 | 4.19% | 5.19% | $1,515 | 44% |
| 87123 | 4.15% | 5.19% | $1,250 | 32% |
| 87110 | 4.13% | 5.05% | $1,391 | 38% |
| 87109 | 4.08% | 5.07% | $1,364 | 42% |
| 87111 | 3.99% | 4.98% | $1,459 | 55% |
| 87114 | 3.79% | 4.69% | $1,683 | 40% |
| 87108 | 3.77% | 4.62% | $974 | 32% |
| 87106 | 3.30% | 3.52% | $1,375 | 54% |
| 87113 | 3.13% | 3.23% | $2,071 | 48% |
Sorted by long-run blended appreciation. Green is at least 0.5pp above the national average, red at least 0.5pp below; smaller gaps are left neutral. ZIPs shown as links have their own detail page.
Appreciation comes from the FHFA House Price Index — a repeat-sales index that tracks the same homes over time, which is why it isn't distorted by a change in the mix of what sold in a given year. TerraVue reads it at the ZIP level, back to 1975 where coverage allows.
The forward estimate blends 60% of the longest available look-back (20 years where available) with 40% of the most recent 3 years. Long-run history is the more reliable signal, but a market that has genuinely changed pace should not be ignored — the 60/40 split is the compromise, and it's the same figure TerraVue's simulation uses.
The national comparison is the population-weighted average of these same blended ZIP-level figures, so it compares like with like.
It depends on the price of the specific home and how long you'd stay. What the data settles is the market backdrop: over the past 20 years Albuquerque, NM home prices have risen about 3.43% a year, and TerraVue's forward estimate is 4.11% — above the national average of 4.02% — against a median rent near $1,391. TerraVue runs about 1,000 scenarios on a specific price to return the probability that buying beats renting, plus the breakeven year.
Over the past 20 years, about 3.43% a year; over the past three, 5.13%. TerraVue's forward estimate blends the two at 4.11%. All of it comes from FHFA repeat-sales data across 13 ZIP codes, and individual ZIPs range from 3.13% to 5.27% on that same forward basis.
87102 at 5.27% a year, versus 87113 at 3.13% — a spread of about 2.1 percentage points a year within the same city.
Around $1,391 — the median across the city's ZIP codes, from the Zillow Observed Rent Index (all homes).